American Journal of Epidemiology Vol. 150, No. 11: 1213-1222
Copyright © 1999 by The Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
other |
Homicide Mortality in the United States, 1935–1994: Age, Period, and Cohort Effects
From the Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine Baltimore, MD
Reprint requests to Dr. Guohua Li, Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 600 N. Wolfe Street, Marburg B194A, Baltimore, MD 21287.
The authors analyzed homicide mortality data for the United States from 1935 to 1994, to delineate temporal trends and birth cohort patterns. This study included 850, 822 homicide-attributed deaths documented by the National Center for Health Statistics, and incorporated graphical presentation, median polish, and Poisson regression modeling in an age-period-cohort analysis. Death rates from homicide in the United States doubled in the past four decades, with most of the increase having occurred during the 1960s and early 1970s. Poisson regression models confirmed that the rise of homicide mortality in both men and women was largely attributable to a significant period effect between 1960 and 1974. No discernible cohort patterns were found among women. However, homicide rates for recent male birth cohorts appeared to peak at younger ages and at higher levels. A significant increase in homicide mortality risk beginning with males born around 1965 was found by examining the residuals of median polish, and the second-order changes in the regression coefficients from the age-period-cohort model. The hike of homicide mortality during 1985 and 1994 was explained by this cohort effect. Increased prevalence of substance abuse and availability of firearms are two likely factors underlying this disturbing cohort pattern. Am J Epidemiol 1999; 150: 1213-22.
cohort effect; homicide; models; statistical; mortality; Poisson distribution; wounds and injuries
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  X. Chen, G. Li, J. B. Unger, X. Liu, and C. A. Johnson Secular Trends in Adolescent Never Smoking From 1990 to 1999 in California: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Am J Public Health, December 1, 2003; 93(12): 2099 - 2104. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
A. G. Sikora and M. Mulvihill Trends in Mortality Due to Legal Intervention in the United States, 1979 Through 1997 Am J Public Health, May 1, 2002; 92(5): 841 - 843. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 S. Liu, R. Semenciw, C. Waters, S. W. Wen, L. S Mery, and Y. Mao Clues to the aetiological heterogeneity of testicular seminomas and non-seminomas: time trends and age-period-cohort effects Int. J. Epidemiol., October 1, 2000; 29(5): 826 - 831. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|